Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-11-15 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 4 Dallas Stars (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 53.9%

DAL: 46.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.19

DAL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

B. Elliott

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	32	28	4	87.5%	3.14	2	-0.86
DAL	Jake Oettinger	38	33	5	86.8%	4.42	2	-0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • TBL at home vs DAL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-18	DAL 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-30	TBL 2 - 1 DAL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-20	DAL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-23	TBL 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2023-12-04	TBL 4 - 0 DAL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	0	0.80
1	DAL	14	0	0.94
2	TBL	15	0	1.21
2	DAL	14	1	1.17
3	TBL	18	1	1.73
3	DAL	13	1	0.81
4	TBL	5	1	0.69
4	DAL	2	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0