Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-11-15 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

PIT: 47.7%

TOR: 52.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.09

TOR: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 51%

PIT

C. DeSmith

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	33	28	5	84.8%	3.77	2	-1.23
TOR	Matt Murray	37	35	2	94.6%	3.39	2	1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PIT at home vs TOR: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	11	0	0.52
1	TOR	12	0	0.70
2	PIT	19	1	1.60
2	TOR	14	1	1.33
3	PIT	19	1	1.27
3	TOR	18	1	1.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2