Vancouver Canucks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-11-15 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 56.8%

VAN: 43.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.29

VAN: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

BUF

C. Anderson

VAN

S. Martin

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	32	27	5	84.4%	4.07	4	-0.93
VAN	S. Martin	32	28	4	87.5%	3.07	3	-0.93

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • BUF at home vs VAN: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-06	BUF 5 - 3 VAN	BUF	BUF
2025-12-11	VAN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-01-21	VAN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	VAN
2024-11-29	BUF 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	VAN
2024-03-19	VAN 3 - 2 BUF	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	2	0.90
1	VAN	19	1	1.54
2	BUF	15	1	1.40
2	VAN	15	2	1.44
3	BUF	20	0	0.76
3	VAN	9	1	1.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0