Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-11-17 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 44.0%

CGY: 56.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.11

CGY: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CGY

J. Markstrom

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	40	39	1	97.5%	2.49	0	1.49
CGY	J. Markstrom	24	20	4	83.3%	3.99	3	-0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TBL at home vs CGY: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	CGY 4 - 3 TBL	CGY	CGY
2025-11-26	TBL 5 - 1 CGY	TBL	TBL
2025-02-27	TBL 3 - 0 CGY	TBL	TBL
2024-12-12	CGY 3 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-03-07	TBL 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	2	1.45
1	CGY	17	0	0.61
2	TBL	12	0	1.07
2	CGY	21	0	1.14
3	TBL	11	1	1.47
3	CGY	14	0	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2