New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-11-17 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils (OT)

Win Probability

TOR: 41.3%

NJD: 58.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.98

NJD: 3.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

NJD

V. Vanecek

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Matt Murray	33	30	3	90.9%	3.33	2	0.33
NJD	V. Vanecek	27	25	2	92.6%	1.91	0	-0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • TOR at home vs NJD: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	TOR
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	TOR
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	TOR
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	0	0.79
1	NJD	14	1	1.42
2	TOR	10	0	0.61
2	NJD	11	0	0.63
3	TOR	14	0	0.51
3	NJD	18	1	1.17
4	TOR	0	0	0.00
4	NJD	2	0	0.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.0 - 3.7