Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-11-17 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

BOS: 67.8%

PHI: 32.2%

Expected Goals

BOS: 4.05

PHI: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

BOS

L. Ullmark

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	23	22	1	95.7%	1.89	0	0.89
PHI	C. Hart	32	28	4	87.5%	3.99	3	-0.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • BOS at home vs PHI: 6-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	PHI 2 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-02-28	PHI 3 - 1 BOS	PHI	PHI
2026-01-29	BOS 6 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-12-07	BOS 4 - 3 PHI	BOS	BOS
2024-11-02	PHI 0 - 3 BOS	BOS	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	21	1	1.32
1	PHI	14	0	0.76
2	BOS	16	1	1.40
2	PHI	7	0	0.44
3	BOS	12	1	1.27
3	PHI	14	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 4.1 - 3.1