Pittsburgh Penguins at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2022-11-17 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 4 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

MIN: 47.9%

PIT: 52.1%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.09

PIT: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	32	26	6	81.2%	3.52	3	-2.48
PIT	Tristan Jarry	23	19	4	82.6%	2.59	1	-1.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MIN at home vs PIT: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-21	PIT 0 - 5 MIN	MIN	PIT
2025-10-30	MIN 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	MIN
2025-03-09	MIN 1 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-10-29	PIT 3 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-02-09	MIN 3 - 2 PIT	MIN	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	10	0	0.52
1	PIT	7	0	0.23
2	MIN	13	1	1.16
2	PIT	17	0	1.18
3	MIN	12	0	0.91
3	PIT	20	3	2.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 4 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1