Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2022-11-17 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 5 - 4 Washington Capitals (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 46.7%

WSH: 53.3%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.62

WSH: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 49%

STL

T. Greiss

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	T. Greiss	57	52	5	91.2%	6.42	3	1.42
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	28	22	6	78.6%	4.98	3	-1.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • STL at home vs WSH: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL
2025-11-05	WSH 6 - 1 STL	WSH	WSH
2025-02-27	WSH 2 - 5 STL	STL	STL
2024-11-09	STL 1 - 8 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-01-20	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	11	0	0.72
1	WSH	15	1	0.81
2	STL	11	1	1.26
2	WSH	25	0	1.86
3	STL	6	0	0.35
3	WSH	27	1	2.17
4	STL	7	0	0.75
4	WSH	3	0	0.32
5	STL	6	2	1.90
5	WSH	6	1	1.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 5 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.6 - 3.1