Arizona Coyotes at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2022-11-17 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 1 Arizona Coyotes
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 74.4%
ARI: 25.6%
Expected Goals
VGK: 4.10
ARI: 1.81
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 69%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
L. Thompson
ARI
K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA
| Stat | VGK | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | — | 0.891 |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | — | 3.67 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | L. Thompson | 26 | 25 | 1 | 96.2% | 1.70 | 0 | 0.70 |
| ARI | K. Vejmelka | 39 | 35 | 4 | 89.7% | 3.45 | 0 | -0.55 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • VGK at home vs ARI: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-05 | ARI 7 - 4 VGK | ARI | VGK |
| 2024-02-08 | ARI 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | VGK |
| 2023-11-25 | VGK 0 - 2 ARI | ARI | VGK |
| 2023-01-22 | ARI 4 - 1 VGK | ARI | ARI |
| 2022-12-21 | VGK 5 - 2 ARI | VGK | VGK |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VGK | 17 | 0 | 1.16 |
| 1 | ARI | 10 | 0 | 0.36 |
| 2 | VGK | 16 | 0 | 1.14 |
| 2 | ARI | 11 | 0 | 0.54 |
| 3 | VGK | 18 | 0 | 1.15 |
| 3 | ARI | 16 | 0 | 0.80 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 74.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 1 Arizona Coyotes
Expected: 4.1 - 1.8
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