Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-11-19 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

Win Probability

MTL: 53.9%

PHI: 46.1%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.02

PHI: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 43%

MTL

J. Allen

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	31	27	4	87.1%	3.02	1	-0.98
PHI	C. Hart	34	29	5	85.3%	4.01	1	-0.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs PHI: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	15	0	0.71
1	PHI	12	1	0.72
2	MTL	17	0	1.37
2	PHI	20	0	1.32
3	MTL	14	0	0.76
3	PHI	17	0	0.74
4	MTL	2	0	0.18
4	PHI	1	0	0.04
5	MTL	3	1	1.00
5	PHI	3	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2