Pittsburgh Penguins at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2022-11-19 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 0 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 55.2%

PIT: 44.8%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.30

PIT: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 53%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	32	29	3	90.6%	3.11	1	0.11
PIT	Tristan Jarry	32	32	0	100.0%	2.36	0	2.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • WPG at home vs PIT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	PIT 5 - 4 WPG	PIT	PIT
2025-11-01	WPG 5 - 2 PIT	WPG	WPG
2024-11-22	PIT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PIT
2024-10-20	WPG 6 - 3 PIT	WPG	WPG
2024-02-10	WPG 2 - 1 PIT	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	15	0	0.69
1	PIT	14	0	0.55
2	WPG	17	0	0.98
2	PIT	19	0	1.11
3	WPG	17	0	0.69
3	PIT	14	1	1.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 0 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2