Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-11-19 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 46.3%

VGK: 53.7%

Expected Goals

EDM: 2.85

VGK: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 49%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	34	31	3	91.2%	3.68	3	0.68
VGK	Adin Hill	23	19	4	82.6%	3.35	4	-0.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • EDM at home vs VGK: 8-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	EDM 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-26	VGK 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2026-03-08	VGK 2 - 4 EDM	EDM	VGK
2025-12-21	EDM 4 - 3 VGK	EDM	EDM
2025-05-14	VGK 0 - 1 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	18	1	1.60
1	VGK	12	1	1.03
2	EDM	10	0	0.45
2	VGK	15	2	1.58
3	EDM	6	2	1.04
3	VGK	16	0	1.07
4	EDM	1	1	0.25
4	VGK	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0