New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-11-21 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 New York Islanders (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 61.8%

NYI: 38.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.15

NYI: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

TOR

E. Kallgren

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	E. Kallgren	24	21	3	87.5%	2.28	0	-0.72
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	32	30	2	93.8%	2.82	0	0.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TOR at home vs NYI: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-31	TOR 3 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	TOR	12	0.74
1	NYI	15	0.59
2	TOR	19	1.23
2	NYI	11	0.82
3	TOR	16	0.79
3	NYI	11	0.69
4	TOR	1	0.06
4	NYI	2	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.1 - 2.7