Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-11-21 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 56.4%

COL: 43.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.35

COL: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 48%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	37	34	3	91.9%	5.84	6	2.84
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	26	24	2	92.3%	2.66	2	0.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • DAL at home vs COL: 7-9

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	DAL 0 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-18	COL 1 - 2 DAL	DAL	COL
2026-03-06	DAL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-10-11	COL 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-05-03	DAL 4 - 2 COL	DAL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	1	1.16
1	COL	12	0	0.94
2	DAL	11	1	1.12
2	COL	10	2	1.11
3	DAL	7	0	0.23
3	COL	17	3	2.09
4	DAL	0	0	0.00
4	COL	10	0	0.69
5	DAL	2	0	0.14
5	COL	2	1	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8