Vegas Golden Knights at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2022-11-21 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

VAN: 45.8%

VGK: 54.2%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.86

VGK: 3.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

VAN

Thatcher Demko - 8-8-0 | 0.905 SV% | 2.72 GAA

VGK

L. Thompson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Thatcher Demko	38	33	5	86.8%	4.17	4	-0.83
VGK	L. Thompson	29	25	4	86.2%	2.06	0	-1.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • VAN at home vs VGK: 2-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	VAN 1 - 2 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-30	VGK 4 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2026-02-04	VGK 5 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2025-04-16	VAN 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-06	VAN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	11	0	0.45
1	VGK	18	1	1.35
2	VAN	9	0	0.60
2	VGK	12	0	1.15
3	VAN	16	0	1.01
3	VGK	16	3	1.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 5 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.9 - 3.9