Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-11-22 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 7 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

MTL: 45.7%

BUF: 54.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 2.75

BUF: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 52%

MTL

J. Allen

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	38	31	7	81.6%	3.27	2	-3.73
BUF	C. Anderson	31	29	2	93.5%	2.22	0	0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • MTL at home vs BUF: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	17	0	0.87
1	BUF	13	1	0.53
2	MTL	11	0	0.87
2	BUF	17	1	1.18
3	MTL	10	0	0.48
3	BUF	16	0	1.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 7 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.7 - 3.4