St. Louis Blues at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-11-23 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 2 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 45.4%

STL: 54.6%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.27

STL: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 55%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	36	34	2	94.4%	3.63	2	1.63
STL	Jordan Binnington	32	26	6	81.2%	3.63	2	-2.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs STL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-29	STL 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-11-06	BUF 0 - 3 STL	STL	BUF
2024-12-29	STL 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-11-14	BUF 4 - 3 STL	BUF	BUF
2024-02-10	BUF 1 - 3 STL	STL	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	1	1.30
1	STL	14	0	0.80
2	BUF	18	0	1.07
2	STL	17	0	1.21
3	BUF	14	1	1.26
3	STL	16	2	1.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0