Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2022-11-23 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

NJD: 59.7%

TOR: 40.3%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.84

TOR: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 71%

Over 6.5: 57%

NJD

V. Vanecek

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	V. Vanecek	20	18	2	90.0%	2.56	3	0.56
TOR	Matt Murray	35	34	1	97.1%	3.50	3	2.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • NJD at home vs TOR: 1-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-04	NJD 4 - 3 TOR	NJD	TOR
2025-12-30	TOR 4 - 0 NJD	TOR	TOR
2025-10-21	TOR 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	TOR
2025-01-16	TOR 4 - 3 NJD	TOR	TOR
2024-12-10	NJD 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	7	0	0.24
1	TOR	15	2	1.01
2	NJD	23	3	1.63
2	TOR	6	0	0.43
3	NJD	21	0	1.63
3	TOR	9	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.8 - 3.1