Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-11-25 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

PHI: 38.9%

PIT: 61.1%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.69

PIT: 3.47

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

PHI

C. Hart

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	29	25	4	86.2%	2.88	1	-1.12
PIT	Tristan Jarry	30	29	1	96.7%	1.66	1	0.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • PHI at home vs PIT: 7-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	8	0	0.32
1	PIT	18	0	1.34
2	PHI	11	0	0.33
2	PIT	13	1	1.15
3	PHI	19	1	1.01
3	PIT	7	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 2.7 - 3.5