Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-11-25 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 51.9%

SEA: 48.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.32

SEA: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	28	24	4	85.7%	1.81	0	-2.19
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	22	20	2	90.9%	1.65	0	-0.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • VGK at home vs SEA: 8-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	VGK 4 - 1 SEA	VGK	VGK
2026-04-09	SEA 4 - 3 VGK	SEA	VGK
2026-01-31	VGK 2 - 3 SEA	SEA	VGK
2025-10-11	SEA 2 - 1 VGK	SEA	VGK
2025-04-10	VGK 2 - 1 SEA	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	VGK	11	0.58
1	SEA	14	0.82
2	VGK	11	0.54
2	SEA	14	0.67
3	VGK	8	0.53
3	SEA	10	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 4 Seattle Kraken

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0