Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-11-25 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 Winnipeg Jets (OT)

Win Probability

DAL: 45.0%

WPG: 55.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.07

WPG: 3.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 51%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	28	23	5	82.1%	3.08	2	-1.92
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	41	37	4	90.2%	4.53	4	0.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • DAL at home vs WPG: 10-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	DAL 3 - 0 WPG	DAL	DAL
2026-02-02	DAL 4 - 3 WPG	DAL	DAL
2025-12-09	WPG 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-09	WPG 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	WPG
2025-05-17	DAL 2 - 1 WPG	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	20	3	2.03
1	WPG	11	0	0.97
2	DAL	12	0	0.60
2	WPG	15	1	1.29
3	DAL	25	1	1.91
3	WPG	9	1	0.63
4	DAL	0	0	0.00
4	WPG	1	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 5 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.1 - 3.7