Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-11-26 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 54.1%

TOR: 45.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.31

TOR: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

PIT

C. DeSmith

TOR

E. Kallgren

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	C. DeSmith	41	37	4	90.2%	3.81	2	-0.19
TOR	E. Kallgren	26	25	1	96.2%	2.51	0	1.51

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PIT at home vs TOR: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	0.64
1	TOR	22	0	1.48
2	PIT	15	0	1.00
2	TOR	12	1	1.22
3	PIT	13	0	0.87
3	TOR	15	1	1.12

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2