Vancouver Canucks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-11-26 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 5 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 59.8%

VAN: 40.2%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.55

VAN: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

VGK

L. Thompson

VAN

S. Martin

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	L. Thompson	36	31	5	86.1%	3.07	1	-1.93
VAN	S. Martin	27	26	1	96.3%	2.36	1	1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • VGK at home vs VAN: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	VAN 1 - 2 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-30	VGK 4 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2026-02-04	VGK 5 - 2 VAN	VGK	VGK
2025-04-16	VAN 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-06	VAN 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	9	1	0.67
1	VAN	19	0	1.29
2	VGK	15	0	0.94
2	VAN	18	1	1.22
3	VGK	19	0	0.75
3	VAN	12	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 5 Vancouver Canucks

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7