Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-11-28 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning (OT)

Win Probability

BUF: 48.3%

TBL: 51.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.98

TBL: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 72%

Over 6.5: 55%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

TBL

B. Elliott

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	25	19	6	76.0%	3.79	3	-2.21
TBL	B. Elliott	37	32	5	86.5%	4.00	2	-1.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BUF at home vs TBL: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	20	1	1.47
1	TBL	8	0	0.70
2	BUF	11	0	0.80
2	TBL	20	1	1.02
3	BUF	11	0	0.69
3	TBL	17	2	1.97
4	BUF	7	1	1.05
4	TBL	2	0	0.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 6 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2