Carolina Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2022-11-29 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 52.7%

CAR: 47.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.26

CAR: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Tristan Jarry	39	36	3	92.3%	3.28	2	0.28
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	32	30	2	93.8%	2.79	2	0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • PIT at home vs CAR: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	PIT 1 - 5 CAR	CAR	PIT
2026-03-18	CAR 6 - 5 PIT	CAR	CAR
2026-03-10	CAR 5 - 4 PIT	CAR	CAR
2025-12-30	PIT 5 - 1 CAR	PIT	PIT
2025-01-05	CAR 4 - 3 PIT	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	12	1	1.02
1	CAR	19	0	0.73
2	PIT	10	1	0.94
2	CAR	20	2	1.81
3	PIT	15	0	0.84
3	CAR	11	0	0.63
4	PIT	0	0	0.00
4	CAR	1	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8