San Jose Sharks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2022-11-29 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 4 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 52.1%

SJS: 47.9%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.26

SJS: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

MTL

J. Allen

SJS

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	J. Allen	24	20	4	83.3%	3.30	1	-0.70
SJS	K. Kahkonen	28	28	0	100.0%	2.75	0	2.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • MTL at home vs SJS: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	MTL 2 - 4 SJS	SJS	MTL
2026-03-03	SJS 7 - 5 MTL	SJS	MTL
2025-02-27	MTL 4 - 3 SJS	MTL	MTL
2025-02-04	SJS 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2024-01-11	MTL 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	0	0.85
1	SJS	10	0	0.92
2	MTL	9	0	0.61
2	SJS	11	0	0.62
3	MTL	19	0	1.29
3	SJS	11	1	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 0 - 4 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1