Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-11-29 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

BOS: 63.8%

TBL: 36.2%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.14

TBL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	28	27	1	96.4%	1.63	0	0.63
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	26	23	3	88.5%	3.63	5	0.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	13	0	0.67
1	TBL	7	0	0.41
2	BOS	12	2	0.80
2	TBL	14	0	0.70
3	BOS	9	3	2.15
3	TBL	14	0	0.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1