Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2022-11-30 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 5 Buffalo Sabres (SO)

Win Probability

DET: 44.8%

BUF: 55.2%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.94

BUF: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

DET

A. Nedeljkovic

BUF

C. Anderson

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	A. Nedeljkovic	37	32	5	86.5%	4.43	3	-0.57
BUF	C. Anderson	46	42	4	91.3%	4.25	1	0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 63% • DET at home vs BUF: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-27	BUF 2 - 5 DET	DET	BUF
2025-11-15	DET 4 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DET	BUF	BUF
2025-03-12	DET 7 - 3 BUF	DET	DET
2024-12-09	BUF 5 - 6 DET	DET	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	17	0	0.97
1	BUF	15	1	1.03
2	DET	17	1	1.21
2	BUF	17	0	1.09
3	DET	26	0	1.83
3	BUF	12	1	1.12
4	DET	1	0	0.06
4	BUF	4	0	0.17
5	DET	3	0	0.17
5	BUF	3	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 2.9 - 3.1