San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-11-30 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

TOR: 57.9%

SJS: 42.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.10

SJS: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

TOR

I. Samsonov

SJS

A. Dell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	24	23	1	95.8%	2.85	2	1.85
SJS	A. Dell	32	29	3	90.6%	4.22	5	1.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • TOR at home vs SJS: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	SJS 4 - 1 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-12-11	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2025-03-27	SJS 6 - 5 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-03-03	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2024-01-09	TOR 7 - 1 SJS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	0	0.68
1	SJS	12	1	1.08
2	TOR	13	0	1.19
2	SJS	12	1	0.99
3	TOR	12	5	2.36
3	SJS	12	0	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1