Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-12-01 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

BUF: 42.3%

COL: 57.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.08

COL: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	34	28	6	82.4%	4.09	1	-1.91
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	28	24	4	85.7%	2.96	1	-1.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • BUF at home vs COL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-13	COL 6 - 3 BUF	COL	COL
2025-10-13	BUF 1 - 3 COL	COL	BUF
2025-01-02	COL 6 - 5 BUF	COL	COL
2024-12-03	BUF 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2023-12-13	COL 5 - 1 BUF	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	0	0.82
1	COL	12	0	0.73
2	BUF	17	0	1.03
2	COL	18	0	1.88
3	BUF	13	1	1.11
3	COL	13	1	1.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0