Montreal Canadiens at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-12-01 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 58.3%

MTL: 41.7%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.82

MTL: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

CGY

J. Markstrom

MTL

J. Allen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	J. Markstrom	19	17	2	89.5%	1.91	1	-0.09
MTL	J. Allen	46	45	1	97.8%	4.24	3	3.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CGY at home vs MTL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	MTL 4 - 1 CGY	MTL	MTL
2025-10-22	CGY 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-08	CGY 1 - 0 MTL	CGY	CGY
2024-11-05	MTL 2 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2024-03-16	CGY 5 - 2 MTL	CGY	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	17	0	1.02
1	MTL	9	0	0.45
2	CGY	17	2	1.30
2	MTL	13	1	0.87
3	CGY	26	1	1.92
3	MTL	9	0	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.8 - 3.0