Colorado Avalanche at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2022-12-03 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 5 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

BOS: 53.4%

COL: 46.6%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.56

COL: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

BOS

L. Ullmark

COL

P. Francouz

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	L. Ullmark	25	24	1	96.0%	1.50	0	0.50
COL	P. Francouz	40	35	5	87.5%	3.30	2	-1.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • BOS at home vs COL: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-25	BOS 3 - 2 COL	BOS	COL
2025-10-18	COL 4 - 1 BOS	COL	COL
2025-01-25	BOS 3 - 1 COL	BOS	COL
2024-10-16	COL 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	COL
2024-01-18	BOS 5 - 2 COL	BOS	BOS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	17	0	0.95
1	COL	16	0	0.61
2	BOS	19	2	1.46
2	COL	6	0	0.31
3	BOS	14	0	0.89
3	COL	10	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 5 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.6 - 3.1