San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-12-03 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 39.9%

SJS: 60.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.22

SJS: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

SJS

K. Kahkonen

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	37	35	2	94.6%	3.55	1	1.55
SJS	K. Kahkonen	39	34	5	87.2%	3.32	3	-1.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs SJS: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	OTT 7 - 4 SJS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-22	SJS 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-01	OTT 5 - 3 SJS	OTT	OTT
2024-11-27	SJS 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-03-09	SJS 2 - 1 OTT	SJS	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	20	0	0.83
1	SJS	13	1	0.86
2	OTT	18	1	1.09
2	SJS	13	0	0.92
3	OTT	14	2	1.40
3	SJS	21	0	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 2 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2