Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2022-12-03 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 5 - 2 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

CGY: 55.8%

WSH: 44.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.06

WSH: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

WSH

D. Kuemper

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dan Vladar	29	27	2	93.1%	2.40	1	0.40
WSH	D. Kuemper	36	31	5	86.1%	4.21	1	-0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs WSH: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	WSH 7 - 3 CGY	WSH	WSH
2026-01-23	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-02-25	WSH 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WSH
2025-01-28	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	CGY
2024-03-18	CGY 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	20	0	0.97
1	WSH	18	1	1.42
2	CGY	18	0	1.25
2	WSH	7	0	0.34
3	CGY	15	1	1.99
3	WSH	14	0	0.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 5 - 2 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0