Minnesota Wild at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-12-04 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 5 - 6 Minnesota Wild (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

DAL: 60.4%

MIN: 39.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.52

MIN: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	34	26	8	76.5%	5.07	5	-2.93
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	37	30	7	81.1%	4.90	5	-2.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • DAL at home vs MIN: 9-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	MIN 5 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-28	DAL 2 - 4 MIN	MIN	DAL
2026-04-25	MIN 3 - 2 DAL	MIN	MIN
2026-04-22	MIN 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	MIN
2026-04-20	DAL 4 - 2 MIN	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	17	1	1.22
1	MIN	11	0	0.51
2	DAL	15	0	0.91
2	MIN	14	2	1.04
3	DAL	11	1	1.03
3	MIN	13	0	0.77
4	DAL	1	1	0.22
4	MIN	4	0	0.24
5	DAL	3	2	1.52
5	MIN	3	3	2.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 5 - 6 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9