San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-12-04 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

BUF: 57.3%

SJS: 42.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.22

SJS: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

SJS

A. Dell

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	29	26	3	89.7%	2.50	3	-0.50
SJS	A. Dell	38	32	6	84.2%	5.02	4	-0.98

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • BUF at home vs SJS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	SJS 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-03-10	BUF 6 - 3 SJS	BUF	BUF
2025-03-04	BUF 2 - 6 SJS	SJS	BUF
2024-11-23	SJS 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-01-27	SJS 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	19	1	1.99
1	SJS	14	2	1.21
2	BUF	15	1	1.27
2	SJS	9	1	0.54
3	BUF	14	2	1.76
3	SJS	11	0	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 6 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4