Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2022-12-05 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 46.5%

COL: 53.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.18

COL: 3.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

PHI

C. Hart

COL

Alexandar Georgiev - 38-18-5 | 0.897 SV% | 3.02 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	C. Hart	32	29	3	90.6%	2.46	0	-0.54
COL	Alexandar Georgiev	34	29	5	85.3%	3.14	2	-1.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs COL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	COL 3 - 7 PHI	PHI	COL
2025-12-07	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-02	COL 2 - 0 PHI	COL	PHI
2024-11-18	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2024-01-20	PHI 4 - 7 COL	COL	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	12	0	0.23
1	COL	20	0	1.27
2	PHI	14	0	0.71
2	COL	9	0	0.36
3	PHI	17	2	2.20
3	COL	15	0	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.2 - 3.6