Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2022-12-05 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 55.3%

WSH: 44.7%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.54

WSH: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	50	47	3	94.0%	4.33	3	1.33
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	30	28	2	93.3%	2.18	0	0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs WSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-24	EDM 6 - 5 WSH	EDM	EDM
2025-11-19	WSH 7 - 4 EDM	WSH	WSH
2025-02-23	WSH 7 - 3 EDM	WSH	EDM
2025-01-21	EDM 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	EDM
2024-03-13	EDM 7 - 2 WSH	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	18	0	0.79
1	WSH	29	0	1.56
2	EDM	10	0	0.53
2	WSH	22	2	1.80
3	EDM	13	0	0.86
3	WSH	10	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1