Montreal Canadiens at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2022-12-05 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 7 - 6 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 46.9%

MTL: 53.1%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.30

MTL: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

VAN

S. Martin

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	S. Martin	26	20	6	76.9%	3.80	3	-2.20
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	32	25	7	78.1%	3.44	2	-3.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VAN at home vs MTL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	MTL 6 - 3 VAN	MTL	MTL
2025-10-25	VAN 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-11	VAN 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	VAN
2025-01-06	MTL 5 - 4 VAN	MTL	VAN
2024-03-21	VAN 4 - 1 MTL	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	12	1	1.07
1	MTL	17	1	1.42
2	VAN	17	1	1.38
2	MTL	16	0	1.29
3	VAN	11	0	0.80
3	MTL	10	2	1.09
4	VAN	1	0	0.20
4	MTL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 7 - 6 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3