Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-12-06 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 58.0%

DET: 42.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.37

DET: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

DET

Ville Husso - 9-5-2 | 0.892 SV% | 3.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	26	22	4	84.6%	4.47	5	0.47
DET	Ville Husso	46	44	2	95.7%	4.89	4	2.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • TBL at home vs DET: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TBL 4 - 3 DET	TBL	TBL
2026-03-12	TBL 4 - 1 DET	TBL	TBL
2025-11-28	DET 3 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-17	DET 2 - 1 TBL	DET	DET
2025-04-11	TBL 3 - 4 DET	DET	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	17	1	1.25
1	DET	19	2	1.38
2	TBL	11	0	0.74
2	DET	10	0	0.86
3	TBL	35	3	2.90
3	DET	9	3	2.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7