Los Angeles Kings at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2022-12-06 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 55.9%

LAK: 44.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.36

LAK: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

OTT

C. Talbot

LAK

Pheonix Copley - 0-0-0 | 0.833 SV% | 4.37 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	C. Talbot	28	23	5	82.1%	2.64	0	-2.36
LAK	Pheonix Copley	33	31	2	93.9%	2.55	1	0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs LAK: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-24	LAK 2 - 1 OTT	LAK	LAK
2025-11-15	OTT 0 - 1 LAK	LAK	OTT
2024-11-30	LAK 5 - 2 OTT	LAK	LAK
2024-10-14	OTT 8 - 7 LAK	OTT	OTT
2024-03-07	LAK 4 - 3 OTT	LAK	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	15	1	0.75
1	LAK	12	0	0.81
2	OTT	11	0	0.61
2	LAK	12	0	0.77
3	OTT	16	0	1.19
3	LAK	15	0	1.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9