St. Louis Blues at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2022-12-06 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 4 - 7 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (68% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 68.4%

STL: 31.6%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.60

STL: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

STL

T. Greiss

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	28	21	7	75.0%	4.52	5	-2.48
STL	T. Greiss	40	36	4	90.0%	3.47	2	-0.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYI at home vs STL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	STL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	STL
2025-11-22	NYI 1 - 2 STL	STL	STL
2024-11-23	NYI 3 - 1 STL	NYI	NYI
2024-10-17	STL 1 - 0 NYI	STL	STL
2024-03-05	NYI 4 - 2 STL	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	15	0	0.86
1	STL	11	0	0.85
2	NYI	17	2	1.62
2	STL	16	2	1.30
3	NYI	15	0	0.98
3	STL	13	3	2.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 4 - 7 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.6 - 3.2