Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2022-12-06 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 0 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

DAL: 49.4%

TOR: 50.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.26

TOR: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

TOR

Matt Murray - 1-1-0 | 0.879 SV% | 3.54 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	25	4	86.2%	3.72	4	-0.28
TOR	Matt Murray	44	44	0	100.0%	5.84	6	5.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • DAL at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-13	TOR 5 - 6 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-21	DAL 5 - 1 TOR	DAL	DAL
2025-01-14	TOR 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-18	DAL 3 - 5 TOR	TOR	DAL
2024-02-07	TOR 5 - 4 DAL	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	24	2	2.17
1	TOR	15	0	1.20
2	DAL	26	3	2.86
2	TOR	17	3	1.63
3	DAL	16	1	0.81
3	TOR	10	1	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 0 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2