Los Angeles Kings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2022-12-08 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 0 Los Angeles Kings

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 41.8%

LAK: 58.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.90

LAK: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

TOR

I. Samsonov

LAK

J. Quick

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	I. Samsonov	29	29	0	100.0%	1.64	1	1.64
LAK	J. Quick	41	36	5	87.8%	4.08	0	-0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • TOR at home vs LAK: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	LAK 7 - 6 TOR	LAK	LAK
2025-11-13	TOR 3 - 4 LAK	LAK	TOR
2025-03-29	LAK 1 - 3 TOR	TOR	LAK
2024-10-16	TOR 6 - 2 LAK	TOR	TOR
2024-01-02	LAK 0 - 3 TOR	TOR	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	20	0	1.62
1	LAK	9	0	0.34
2	TOR	19	0	1.40
2	LAK	13	0	0.50
3	TOR	13	0	1.06
3	LAK	20	1	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 5 - 0 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2