Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-12-08 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 2 Nashville Predators

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 49.4%

NSH: 50.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.15

NSH: 3.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 52%

TBL

B. Elliott

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	B. Elliott	36	34	2	94.4%	3.17	4	1.17
NSH	Juuse Saros	33	28	5	84.8%	2.69	0	-2.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • TBL at home vs NSH: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-29	TBL 3 - 2 NSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-28	NSH 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-29	NSH 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-10-28	TBL 3 - 2 NSH	TBL	TBL
2023-12-07	NSH 5 - 1 TBL	NSH	NSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	13	0	1.11
1	NSH	4	2	0.83
2	TBL	10	0	0.50
2	NSH	16	1	1.04
3	TBL	16	0	1.08
3	NSH	22	1	1.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 2 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.1 - 3.4