Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2022-12-09 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

Win Probability

BUF: 49.7%

PIT: 50.3%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.09

PIT: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 53%

BUF

C. Anderson

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	C. Anderson	33	29	4	87.9%	3.57	2	-0.43
PIT	Tristan Jarry	31	28	3	90.3%	2.86	1	-0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs PIT: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	PIT
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	15	0	1.01
1	PIT	8	0	0.40
2	BUF	14	1	1.28
2	PIT	13	0	1.39
3	BUF	8	0	0.57
3	PIT	18	1	1.25
4	BUF	0	0	0.00
4	PIT	4	1	0.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 2.9