Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2022-12-09 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers (OT)

Win Probability

VGK: 62.7%

PHI: 37.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.32

PHI: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	28	27	1	96.4%	2.46	1	1.46
PHI	C. Hart	34	32	2	94.1%	1.82	0	-0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • VGK at home vs PHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VGK 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	VGK
2025-12-11	PHI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-02	VGK 5 - 2 PHI	VGK	VGK
2024-11-25	PHI 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-18	PHI 4 - 3 VGK	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	9	0	0.27
1	PHI	16	0	0.62
2	VGK	19	0	0.83
2	PHI	12	1	0.97
3	VGK	12	0	0.56
3	PHI	12	0	0.47
4	VGK	1	0	0.16
4	PHI	3	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 1 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8