Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2022-12-10 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 49.7%

FLA: 50.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.23

FLA: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 51%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	24	1	96.0%	3.07	2	2.07
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	38	34	4	89.5%	4.37	1	0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • TBL at home vs FLA: 7-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	23	0	1.88
1	FLA	15	2	1.64
2	TBL	11	0	0.63
2	FLA	14	0	0.82
3	TBL	18	1	1.86
3	FLA	13	0	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0