Philadelphia Flyers at Arizona Coyotes NHL Predictions

2022-12-11 • Mullett Arena

Arizona Coyotes 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

Win Probability

ARI: 45.6%

PHI: 54.4%

Expected Goals

ARI: 3.04

PHI: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

ARI

K. Vejmelka - 12-21-0 | 0.891 SV% | 3.67 GAA

PHI

C. Hart

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ARI	K. Vejmelka	41	37	4	90.2%	4.44	4	0.44
PHI	C. Hart	29	24	5	82.8%	2.34	1	-2.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ARI at home vs PHI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2024-02-12	PHI 5 - 3 ARI	PHI	PHI
2023-12-07	ARI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-01-05	PHI 6 - 2 ARI	PHI	PHI
2022-12-11	ARI 5 - 4 PHI	ARI	PHI
2021-12-11	ARI 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	ARI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ARI	19	1	1.29
1	PHI	11	0	0.51
2	ARI	9	0	0.61
2	PHI	26	3	2.00
3	ARI	6	0	0.28
3	PHI	21	1	1.58
4	ARI	3	0	0.17
4	PHI	3	0	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Arizona Coyotes 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2