Washington Capitals at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2022-12-11 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 56.8%

WSH: 43.2%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.33

WSH: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	36	31	5	86.1%	4.97	5	-0.03
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	31	29	2	93.5%	3.12	1	1.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs WSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	WPG 5 - 1 WSH	WPG	WSH
2025-11-26	WSH 4 - 3 WPG	WSH	WSH
2025-03-25	WPG 3 - 2 WSH	WPG	WPG
2025-02-01	WSH 4 - 5 WPG	WPG	WSH
2024-03-24	WSH 3 - 0 WPG	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	11	0	0.85
1	WSH	12	0	0.87
2	WPG	14	1	1.13
2	WSH	19	2	2.01
3	WPG	13	0	1.14
3	WSH	14	3	2.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9